Inside India's record October 2026 exports: what drove the 45% jump, why the deficit still widened and what exporters should do now
October 2026 trade data explained: petroleum, electronics and engineering exports, the goods deficit, the services surplus and steps for exporters.
India's merchandise exports rose $15.36 billion year on year to a record $49.47 billion in October 2026, per Ministry of Commerce and Industry data. Petroleum products alone added about a third of that increase, but exports excluding oil and gems still grew 32.98%. Goods imports rose too, so the merchandise deficit hit $39.88 billion, while a services surplus of about $19.79 billion narrowed the overall gap to $20.09 billion.
October's trade release carried a record headline, but the detail matters more for businesses: which products and markets are growing, why imports kept pace, and how much of the strength comes from services. This piece works through the figures released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 13 November 2026 and sets out the compliance steps exporters should take while volumes are high.
1. The headline: a record month for goods
Merchandise exports reached $49.47 billion against $34.11 billion in October 2025, a 45.06% rise. That is $5.07 billion more than September's $44.40 billion (Refogo calculation), and the highest monthly figure on record.
2. How much of it is oil?
Petroleum product exports rose 140.21% to $8.89 billion from $3.70 billion. That $5.19 billion gain is about 34% of the total rise in goods exports (Refogo calculation). Higher crude prices raise the value of refined product exports, so part of this growth reflects prices rather than volumes.
The rest of the basket was strong too. Exports excluding petroleum and gems and jewellery rose 32.98% to $37.38 billion from $28.11 billion, a gain of $9.27 billion, or about 60% of the total increase (Refogo calculation).
For businesses, the distinction matters. Oil-linked export earnings move with global prices and can reverse quickly if crude falls. Growth in manufactured goods such as engineering products and electronics is more likely to reflect orders, capacity and market access, and is a better guide to where demand for suppliers, logistics and working capital will come from in the months ahead.
3. The sectors that gained most
Engineering goods remain the largest category and added $3.37 billion. Electronics added $2.56 billion, growing 62.70% (Refogo calculation of increases). Chemicals rose 36.20% to $2.89 billion. Labour-intensive sectors also grew: handicrafts excluding carpets rose 55.22%, ready-made garments 20.33% and cotton yarn, fabrics and handloom 29.96%. Among farm goods, rice grew 18.39% and processed food 37.40%.
Reported gems and jewellery figures differ between outlets: SMEStreet reported growth of 40.06% to $3.21 billion, while another headline cited 34% growth to $2.92 billion. We use neither as a firm number until the official release is available.
4. Markets: the US and China both grew
By destination, exports to the United States grew 39.25% and to China 48.15%. Smaller markets grew faster from lower bases: Spain (+352.07%), Malaysia (+280.72%) and Singapore (+139.10%). Values for these markets were not reported.
Growth across both large and small markets suggests demand is not tied to a single trade partner. Exporters entering new markets should check product-specific requirements early, such as certificates of origin under trade agreements and quality or inspection certificates for food and agricultural shipments, since missing documents are a common cause of delays at the destination port.
5. Why the goods deficit still widened
Goods imports rose to $89.35 billion from $76.69 billion, an increase of $12.66 billion (Refogo calculation). The merchandise deficit therefore reached $39.88 billion, up from $30.21 billion in September and the highest in a year. Angel One noted that India imports nearly 85% of its crude oil needs, so higher oil prices lift the import bill as well as product exports.
- Merchandise55.0%
- Services (estimate)45.0%
Services did the balancing. Estimated services exports of $40.51 billion against imports of $20.72 billion leave a surplus of about $19.79 billion (Refogo calculation). That is why the combined goods and services deficit fell to $20.09 billion from $25.15 billion, even as the goods gap grew.
6. The year so far
| April–October (US$ billion) | 2025-26 | 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|
| Total exports (goods + services) | 487.59 | 568.84 |
| Services exports (estimate) | 234.18 | 259.78 |
| Merchandise trade deficit | 199.46 | 218.15 |
| Goods + services trade deficit | 83.25 | 93.35 |
| Non-petroleum, non-gems exports | 203.17 | 240.73 |
Cumulative total exports are up about 16.7% and services exports about 10.9% (Refogo calculations). The merchandise deficit is about 9.4% higher, so the year-to-date combined deficit is still wider than last year despite October's improvement.
The year-to-date numbers put October in context. One record month does not change the broad picture: India still imports far more goods than it exports, and the services surplus remains the main offset. What has changed is the pace of export growth, which is now running well ahead of last year across most of the basket.
7. What exporters should do now
- 1Keep the IEC current
An Import Export Code from DGFT is needed to export. Update it whenever company details change, or customs filings can be held up.
- 2File or renew the GST LUT
Exports are zero-rated under GST. A valid Letter of Undertaking lets exporters ship without paying IGST and then claiming it back.
- 3Claim refunds promptly
Exporters paying IGST or carrying unused input tax credit can claim refunds. Match shipping bills with GST returns so claims are not delayed.
- 4Prepare for 14-digit e-way bills
GSTN has said e-way bill numbers will move from 12 to 14 digits from 1 January 2027. Check that billing and logistics software can handle the change.
- 5Track export proceeds
FEMA rules require export proceeds to be realised and repatriated within set timelines. Reconcile receipts with your bank regularly.
Small exporters often feel the strain of growth first through working capital. Larger orders mean more money tied up in inventory and in tax paid on inputs. Keeping the LUT valid, filing refund claims each period rather than in batches, and reconciling books monthly are the simplest ways to keep cash moving while volumes rise.
Related services
Sources
- ANI via The Tribune, 13 November 2026: India's exports surge nearly 30% to USD 89.99 billion in October (Ministry of Commerce and Industry data)
- SMEStreet, 14 November 2026: India Exports October 2026 (Ministry of Commerce and Industry data)
- Angel One, 13 November 2026: India's merchandise exports hit record $49.47 billion in October 2026
- TaxGuru weekly roundup, 11 November 2026 (GSTN advisory of 4 November 2026 on 14-digit e-way bill numbers)
Reported by the Refogo News Desk from the official sources above. General information, not legal or tax advice. Spotted an error? Email support@refogo.com; see our corrections policy.
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Common questions
What were India's merchandise exports in October 2026?
$49.47 billion, up 45.06% from $34.11 billion in October 2025, according to Ministry of Commerce and Industry data released on 13 November 2026.
Why did the trade deficit narrow if imports rose?
The goods deficit widened to $39.88 billion, but an estimated services surplus of about $19.79 billion brought the combined goods and services deficit down to $20.09 billion.
Do exporters pay GST on exports?
Exports are zero-rated. Exporters can ship under a Letter of Undertaking without paying IGST, or pay IGST and claim a refund.